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Failed mathematician turned psephologist, Anand Walunjzcki, used highly sophisticated and dubious mathematical models drawing from set theory, differential equations, probability theory and stochastic calculus to estimate the odds of success at the electoral hustings in 2014. It is hoped that the reader is left sufficiently impressed and none the wiser after going through his analysis.
1. NDA: The National Democratic Alliance is the biggest opposition to the ruling Govt in India. It is hoping that a combination of anti-incumbency, promise of good governance, a dash of Hindutva, Modi’s charisma and a push from from key allies will propel it to power at the Center. However, it has to overcome an ever bigger hurdle before that: declaring its Prime Ministerial candidate. This will be the outcome of a highly stochastic and convoluted process, a nether world straddling the occult and the sciences where the likes of Walunjzcki ply their trade.
x = probability that Narendra Modi is PM candidate,
F= Force with which BJP may attract chiller parties defined as F = KN1N2/d2, N1 and N2 are Lok Sabha seats of BJP and chiller parties and d = distance maintained by BJP from extreme Hindutva and K is the RSS constant,
Y is a Poisson random variable to model the chaos and disarray within the BJP.
PM candidate: The NDA’s Prime Ministerial candidate must be at the intersection of 4 attributes: adherence to Hindutva, dynamism, secularism (can be defined in myriad ways), and must possess the X factor (whatever that means). This obviously places a question mark (make that many many question marks) over the NDA’s choice of PM candidate.
2. UPA: The ruling party UPA predominantly of Congress and consists of other allies. The mathematical equation is given by:
where G is a convoluted integral involving the CBI and the smaller allies and Log (NDTV) to the base of 2002 acting as an amplification factor.
PM candidate: Though there is confusion about whether Rahul Gandhi will condescend to become the Prime Ministerial candidate out of a sense of noblesse oblige, what is certain is that the eventual candidate has to either have Gandhi genes or be a handpicked nominee of the first family. We have accordingly sketched out a Venn diagram as per Walunjzcki’s specifications:
3. AAP: Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) may not win any seats in the Lok Sabha elections but is expected to be a pain in the ‘you know where’ for all the other parties. Walunjzcki’s Venn diagram illustrates this point more vividly:
4. Third Front: The Third Front is the most complex alliance involving interplay between random variables such as Mulayam Singh, Laloo, and other tiny ‘chillar’ parties which are best modeled as white noise. Describing this alliance mathematically is beyond the scope of Walunjzcki, who never managed to complete his doctorate in applied mathematics. So Walunjzcki has merely flagged the various factors and more sophisticated treatment is deferred to more skilled and capable practitioners of this discipline.
Third front’s chances =
where x,y,z are the chances of winning of SP, Left and DMK respectively that could keep BSP, TMC and AIADMK out respectively and Px/Py is the probability
This complex equation can be simplified by the Walunjzcki theorem as follows:
PM candidate: The Venn diagram as to what qualifications are required for a Third Front leader to become a PM is equally complex. It actually does not denote the qualities but the vote bank it stands for. So who shall be the PM candidate for Third Front? Simple. Refer to this Venn diagram.